# Queen of the South v Ross County — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Queen of the South: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Ross County: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 1.00 points a game, Ross County 0.69 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 10 after 10 games, with 10 points. Last season it finished 3rd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 -- 3 points of 9. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 3 of 8 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 3, lost 7 of 21 (1.71 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ### Ross County -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 10 after 9 games, with 25 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Championship, where it finished 10th of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 2, drew 3, lost 8 of 13 -- 9 points of 39. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 8 of 13 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 5, lost 6 of 19 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 4, drew 3, lost 4 of 11 (1.36 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.57 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ross County 1.13 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Last season at home: won 9, drew 5, lost 4 of 18, scoring 31 and conceding 21 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Peterhead 1-0 away; beat Cove Rangers 4-3 at home; lost to Hamilton Academical 1-4 away; lost to Ross County 0-8 away; drew with East Fife 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 19 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Peter Murphy. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Ross County -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 4, drew 1, lost 0 of 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. Last season away in the Scottish Championship: won 2, drew 7, lost 9 of 18, scoring 11 and conceding 29 -- 0.72 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Montrose 5-0 away; beat Alloa Athletic 4-1 at home; beat Cove Rangers 2-0 away; beat Queen of the South 8-0 at home; drew with East Fife 2-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (14, 4, 3 apiece), most recently Stuart Kettlewell with 14. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ross County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Queen of the South scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 69); Queen of the South concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 72); Ross County scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 66); Ross County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 69 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 69 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 46 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 46 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Ross County -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%). - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 45 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 45 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen of the South's numbers over its games, Ross County's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (48%). In Ross County's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 46 (52%); over 1.5 in 41 (89%); over 3.5 in 15 (33%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). At home: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 10 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Queen of the South's own 46 matches read: Queen of the South or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (54%). Queen of the South itself held the lead in 12, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 23. ### Ross County -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 45 (56%); over 1.5 in 33 (73%); over 3.5 in 17 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 18 of its own 45 (40%). Away: 8 of its 23 (35%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 45 (33%); failed to score in 16 (36%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Ross County's own 45 matches read: Ross County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (53%). Ross County itself held the lead in 14, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 1.00 points a game, Ross County 0.69 -- nothing between them. +0.57 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ross County 1.13 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ross County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 46 and 22 of 45); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Queen of the South's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ross County's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 45; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 69 after the 75th, and Ross County concedes most in that same spell; Ross County finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 66 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.59 goals expected, Ross County 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Ross County's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Queen of the South 2.07 (48%), the draw 4.00 (25%), Ross County 3.75 (27%). The market's averages: 7.50, 5.50 and 1.23. The widest gap is on Queen of the South: the market offers 7.50 against our 2.07. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.97 (51%), under 2.5 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.32, under 2.5 3.10. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.87 (53%), no 2.15 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.67, no 2.06. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (48%). In Ross County's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-10-17/queen-of-the-south-v-ross-county/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:20+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.