# Queen of the South v East Kilbride — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 14 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Queen of the South: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. East Kilbride: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 0.75 points a game, East Kilbride 1.33 -- the block form is East Kilbride's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 13 games, with 13 points. Last season it finished 3rd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 13 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 3 of 4 -- 3 points of 12. At home against them: won 1 of 2. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 3 of 8 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 12, drew 3, lost 7 of 22 (1.77 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 5 of 15 (1.47 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 3 of 4 (0.75 a game). ### East Kilbride -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 12 games, with 18 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League Two, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 3, drew 3, lost 3 of 9 -- 12 points of 27. At home against them: won 2 of 5. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 3, lost 3 of 9 (1.33 a game); against the middle block won 14, drew 1, lost 5 of 20 (2.15 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 2 of 15 (2.07 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 2 of 4 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, East Kilbride 1.78 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 3 of 6, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Last season at home: won 9, drew 5, lost 4 of 18, scoring 31 and conceding 21 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to East Fife 0-2 away; beat Alloa Athletic 1-0 away; lost to Ross County 1-7 at home; beat Peterhead 1-0 away; beat Cove Rangers 4-3 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 19 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Peter Murphy. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### East Kilbride -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Last season away in the Scottish League Two: won 10, drew 4, lost 4 of 18, scoring 36 and conceding 22 -- 1.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Ross County 1-2 at home; drew with Montrose 1-1 at home; drew with Airdrieonians 2-2 at home; beat East Fife 3-0 away; beat Alloa Athletic 2-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 23 matches with one recorded (21, 2 apiece), most recently Simon Ferry with 2. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; East Kilbride scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Queen of the South scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 71); Queen of the South concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 81); East Kilbride scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 98); East Kilbride concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 71 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 71 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 81 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 49 read -- then won 16, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 49 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### East Kilbride -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 98 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 15. - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 48 read -- then won 21, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 25 of its 48 read, winning 23 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen of the South's numbers over its games, East Kilbride's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In East Kilbride's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 49 (51%); over 1.5 in 43 (88%); over 3.5 in 16 (33%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 49 (57%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 49 (22%); failed to score in 11 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Queen of the South's own 49 matches read: Queen of the South or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (55%). Queen of the South itself held the lead in 12, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24. ### East Kilbride -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 33 of its own 48 (69%); over 1.5 in 44 (92%); over 3.5 in 22 (46%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 23 (65%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 48 (60%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 48 (25%); failed to score in 7 (15%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over East Kilbride's own 48 matches read: East Kilbride or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 35 (73%). East Kilbride itself held the lead in 25, winning 23. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 0.75 points a game, East Kilbride 1.33 -- the block form is East Kilbride's. -0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, East Kilbride 1.78 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; East Kilbride scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: East Kilbride lands the first blow more often (28 of 48 to 23 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often East Kilbride's -- two goals clear in 25 of 48, against 12 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in East Kilbride's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 48; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 71 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.53 goals expected, East Kilbride 2.02, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: East Kilbride's figures include last season in the Scottish League Two, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Queen of the South 3.41 (29%), the draw 4.66 (21%), East Kilbride 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: 3.55, 3.70 and 1.89. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.70) than our 4.66 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.45 (69%), under 2.5 3.21 (31%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.49, under 2.5 2.30. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.47 (68%), no 3.12 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.49, no 2.42. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In East Kilbride's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-11-07/queen-of-the-south-v-east-kilbride/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T10:04:33+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.