# Edinburgh City v Forfar Athletic — the Match Wizard Scottish League Two, game week 5 — Friday, 28 August 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Edinburgh City: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Forfar Athletic: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Forfar Athletic the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Edinburgh City takes 1.17 points a game, Forfar Athletic 1.85 -- the block form is Forfar Athletic's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Edinburgh City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 10th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 6, lost 7 of 18 -- 21 points of 54. At home against them: won 2 of 10. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 4, lost 8 of 13 (0.54 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 6, lost 7 of 18 (1.17 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 1, lost 3 of 9 (1.78 a game). ### Forfar Athletic -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 3, lost 3 of 13 -- 24 points of 39. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 6, lost 6 of 13 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 3, lost 4 of 13 (1.62 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 3, lost 3 of 13 (1.85 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.10 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Edinburgh City takes 0.85 a game at home over the last two seasons, Forfar Athletic 0.95 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Edinburgh City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 3, drew 5, lost 10 of 18, scoring 26 and conceding 40 -- 0.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Annan Athletic 1-0 at home; beat Dumbarton 3-0 away; drew with Spartans 2-2 away; lost to Elgin City 0-5 at home; beat Dumbarton 5-0 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 7 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Michael McIndoe. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Forfar Athletic -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 4, drew 6, lost 8 of 18, scoring 21 and conceding 25 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Clyde 0-3 away; beat Stirling Albion 3-0 at home; drew with Elgin City 1-1 away; beat Kelty Hearts 1-0 at home; drew with Annan Athletic 1-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 14 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Weir. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Edinburgh City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Edinburgh City scores most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 50); Edinburgh City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 79); Forfar Athletic scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 56); Forfar Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Edinburgh City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 2.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 79 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 79 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 40 read -- then won 10, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 40 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Forfar Athletic -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 56 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 6. - **When it concedes:** Of 50 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 40 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 40 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Edinburgh City's numbers over its games, Forfar Athletic's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Edinburgh City's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 16 (80%). In Forfar Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 9 (45%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. ### Edinburgh City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 40 (68%); over 1.5 in 34 (85%); over 3.5 in 18 (45%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 20 (75%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 40 (55%). At home: 12 of its 20 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 40 (18%); failed to score in 13 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Edinburgh City's own 40 matches read: Edinburgh City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (62%). Edinburgh City itself held the lead in 8, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 16 of 20. ### Forfar Athletic -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 40 (50%); over 1.5 in 29 (72%); over 3.5 in 12 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 40 (50%). Away: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 40 (32%); failed to score in 10 (25%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Forfar Athletic's own 40 matches read: Forfar Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (45%). Forfar Athletic itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Forfar Athletic the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Edinburgh City takes 1.17 points a game, Forfar Athletic 1.85 -- the block form is Forfar Athletic's. -0.10 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Edinburgh City takes 0.85 a game at home over the last two seasons, Forfar Athletic 0.95 away. Edinburgh City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (18 of 40 and 21 of 40); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Edinburgh City's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Forfar Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 40. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Edinburgh City 1.34 goals expected, Forfar Athletic 1.72, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Edinburgh City 3.32 (30%), the draw 4.24 (24%), Forfar Athletic 2.16 (46%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.70 (59%), under 2.5 2.44 (41%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.76, under 2.5 2.00. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.65 (61%), no 2.54 (39%). The market's averages: yes 1.65, no 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Edinburgh City's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 16 (80%). In Forfar Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 9 (45%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-two/2026-08-28/edinburgh-city-v-forfar-athletic/halftime/ Built 2026-08-25T23:02:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.