# Forfar Athletic v Stranraer — the Match Wizard Scottish League Two, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Forfar Athletic: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Stranraer: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Forfar Athletic and Stranraer finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Forfar Athletic takes 1.62 points a game, Stranraer 1.00 -- the block form is Forfar Athletic's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Forfar Athletic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 5 games, with 8 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 3, lost 4 of 13 -- 21 points of 39. At home against them: won 5 of 6. Away against them: won 1 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 6, lost 6 of 13 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 3, lost 4 of 13 (1.62 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Stranraer -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 5 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 4, lost 6 of 13 -- 13 points of 39. At home against them: won 1 of 7. Away against them: won 2 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 3, lost 5 of 14 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 4, lost 6 of 13 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 6, lost 4 of 13 (1.15 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.60 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Forfar Athletic takes 1.90 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stranraer 1.30 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Forfar Athletic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2, scoring 4 and conceding 0. Last season at home: won 9, drew 5, lost 4 of 18, scoring 30 and conceding 21 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Edinburgh City 1-1 away; lost to Clyde 0-3 away; beat Stirling Albion 3-0 at home; drew with Elgin City 1-1 away; beat Kelty Hearts 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 15 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Weir. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stranraer -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Last season away: won 7, drew 4, lost 7 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 23 -- 1.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Kelty Hearts 2-0 at home; drew with Stirling Albion 2-2 away; beat Spartans 1-0 at home; lost to Annan Athletic 0-1 at home; lost to Clyde 1-3 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 16 matches with one recorded (14, 2 apiece), most recently Scott Agnew with 14. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Stranraer scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Forfar Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stranraer is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Forfar Athletic scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 57); Forfar Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 51); Stranraer scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 50); Stranraer concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Forfar Athletic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.1 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 57 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 6. - **When it concedes:** Of 51 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 51 (27%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 41 read -- then won 13, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 41 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Stranraer -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 52 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 41 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 41 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Forfar Athletic's numbers over its games, Stranraer's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Forfar Athletic's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (45%). In Stranraer's own 20 away matches read, 9 (45%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Forfar Athletic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 41 (49%); over 1.5 in 30 (73%); over 3.5 in 12 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 41 (51%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 41 (32%); failed to score in 10 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Forfar Athletic's own 41 matches read: Forfar Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (44%). Forfar Athletic itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 20. ### Stranraer -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 41 (46%); over 1.5 in 31 (76%); over 3.5 in 11 (27%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 20 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 41 (63%). Away: 12 of its 20 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 41 (17%); failed to score in 10 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stranraer's own 41 matches read: Stranraer or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (34%). Stranraer itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Forfar Athletic and Stranraer finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Forfar Athletic takes 1.62 points a game, Stranraer 1.00 -- the block form is Forfar Athletic's. +0.60 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Forfar Athletic takes 1.90 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stranraer 1.30 away. Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Stranraer scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Forfar Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stranraer is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 41 and 21 of 41); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Forfar Athletic's -- two goals clear in 11 of 41, against 7 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Forfar Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stranraer's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Forfar Athletic 1.56 goals expected, Stranraer 1.10, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Forfar Athletic 2.09 (48%), the draw 3.96 (25%), Stranraer 3.73 (27%). The market's averages: 2.70, 3.10 and 2.25. The widest gap is on Stranraer: the market is shorter (2.25) than our 3.73 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.01 (50%), under 2.5 1.99 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.90, under 2.5 1.78. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.90 (53%), no 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 1.97. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Forfar Athletic's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (45%). In Stranraer's own 20 away matches read, 9 (45%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-two/2026-09-05/forfar-athletic-v-stranraer/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:38:51+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.