# Kelty Hearts v Annan Athletic — the Match Wizard Scottish League Two, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Kelty Hearts: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Annan Athletic: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Kelty Hearts is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Kelty Hearts -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 10 after 5 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish League One, where it finished 10th of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 3, lost 13 of 19 -- 12 points of 57. At home against them: won 0 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 11. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 7 of 12 (0.42 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 3, lost 13 of 19 (0.63 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 2, lost 3 of 10 (1.70 a game). ### Annan Athletic -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 5 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division, and none of the matches we hold were against that block -- nothing to read. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 10 of 14 (0.57 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 3, lost 3 of 13 (1.85 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 6, lost 5 of 14 (1.07 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Kelty Hearts's favour: Kelty Hearts takes 0.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Annan Athletic 0.80 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Kelty Hearts -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 1, drew 7, lost 10 of 18, scoring 11 and conceding 33 -- 0.56 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Stranraer 0-2 away; beat Dumbarton 3-1 at home; lost to Elgin City 1-4 away; beat Stirling Albion 3-2 at home; lost to Forfar Athletic 0-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 5 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Michael Tidser. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Annan Athletic -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 1. Last season away: won 3, drew 4, lost 11 of 18, scoring 16 and conceding 27 -- 0.72 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Dumbarton 2-0 at home; lost to Edinburgh City 0-1 away; lost to Clyde 1-2 at home; beat Stranraer 1-0 away; lost to Spartans 2-4 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 15 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Willie Gibson. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Annan Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Kelty Hearts scores most in the 16-30 band (9 of 39); Kelty Hearts concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 72); Annan Athletic scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 53); Annan Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Kelty Hearts -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.8 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 39 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 39 (23%). - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 72 (19%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 12 of its 41 read -- then won 7, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 41 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Annan Athletic -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 53 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 53 (36%). - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 65 (25%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 41 read -- then won 9, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 41 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Kelty Hearts's numbers over its games, Annan Athletic's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kelty Hearts's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Annan Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. ### Kelty Hearts -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 41 (51%); over 1.5 in 34 (83%); over 3.5 in 11 (27%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 41 (54%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 41 (12%); failed to score in 16 (39%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Kelty Hearts's own 41 matches read: Kelty Hearts or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (54%). Kelty Hearts itself held the lead in 7, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20. ### Annan Athletic -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 41 (54%); over 1.5 in 31 (76%); over 3.5 in 14 (34%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 41 (56%). Away: 8 of its 20 (40%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 41 (22%); failed to score in 11 (27%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Annan Athletic's own 41 matches read: Annan Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (49%). Annan Athletic itself held the lead in 9, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Kelty Hearts is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Kelty Hearts's favour: Kelty Hearts takes 0.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Annan Athletic 0.80 away. Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Annan Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Annan Athletic lands the first blow more often (18 of 41 to 12 of 41); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Annan Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41; Annan Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 53 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Kelty Hearts 0.94 goals expected, Annan Athletic 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Kelty Hearts's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Kelty Hearts 3.44 (29%), the draw 3.41 (29%), Annan Athletic 2.40 (42%). The market's averages: 2.30, 3.90 and 2.90. The widest gap is on Kelty Hearts: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 3.44 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.78 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kelty Hearts's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Annan Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-two/2026-09-05/kelty-hearts-v-annan-athletic/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:38:55+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.