# Elgin City v Edinburgh City — the Match Wizard Scottish League Two, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Elgin City: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Edinburgh City: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Elgin City the bigger side: 6th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Elgin City takes 1.93 points a game, Edinburgh City 1.15 -- the block form is Elgin City's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Elgin City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 10 games, with 17 points. Last season it finished 6th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 5, lost 2 of 15 -- 29 points of 45. At home against them: won 5 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 (0.86 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 2, lost 9 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 2 of 15 (1.93 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Edinburgh City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 10 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 10th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 8, lost 7 of 20 -- 23 points of 60. At home against them: won 2 of 11. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 4, lost 10 of 15 (0.47 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 8, lost 7 of 20 (1.15 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 1, lost 3 of 10 (1.90 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.26 points a game is the venue form gap, in Elgin City's favour: Elgin City takes 1.61 a game at home over the last two seasons, Edinburgh City 1.35 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Elgin City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5, scoring 16 and conceding 9. Last season at home: won 8, drew 3, lost 7 of 18, scoring 28 and conceding 26 -- 1.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Forfar Athletic 2-1 away; beat Clyde 6-2 at home; lost to Stranraer 1-5 at home; lost to Annan Athletic 0-2 away; lost to Dumbarton 1-2 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 10 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Allan Hale. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Edinburgh City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 2, lost 1 of 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Last season away: won 6, drew 5, lost 7 of 18, scoring 18 and conceding 32 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Spartans 1-3 at home; drew with Stranraer 0-0 away; beat Kelty Hearts 3-1 away; beat Stirling Albion 7-3 at home; lost to Clyde 2-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 11 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Michael McIndoe. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Elgin City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Edinburgh City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Elgin City scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 78); Elgin City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 72); Edinburgh City scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 64); Edinburgh City concedes most in the 61-75 band (22 of 90). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Elgin City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.5 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 78 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 78 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 72 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 46 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 46 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Edinburgh City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.7 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 64 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. - **When it concedes:** Of 90 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 22; 76-90+: 21. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 46 read -- then won 12, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 46 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Elgin City's numbers over its games, Edinburgh City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Elgin City's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Edinburgh City's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. ### Elgin City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 46 (61%); over 1.5 in 41 (89%); over 3.5 in 15 (33%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 46 (61%). At home: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 46 (24%); failed to score in 8 (17%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Elgin City's own 46 matches read: Elgin City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (54%). Elgin City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 23. ### Edinburgh City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 46 (67%); over 1.5 in 39 (85%); over 3.5 in 22 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). Away: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 46 (17%); failed to score in 14 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Edinburgh City's own 46 matches read: Edinburgh City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (61%). Edinburgh City itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Elgin City the bigger side: 6th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Elgin City takes 1.93 points a game, Edinburgh City 1.15 -- the block form is Elgin City's. +0.26 points a game is the venue form gap, in Elgin City's favour: Elgin City takes 1.61 a game at home over the last two seasons, Edinburgh City 1.35 away. Elgin City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Edinburgh City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 46 and 22 of 46); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Elgin City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Edinburgh City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 46; Elgin City finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 78 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Elgin City 1.96 goals expected, Edinburgh City 1.34, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Elgin City 1.93 (52%), the draw 4.56 (22%), Edinburgh City 3.82 (26%). The market's averages: 1.85, 3.50 and 3.20. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.50) than our 4.56 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.56 (64%), under 2.5 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.35. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.58 (63%), no 2.74 (37%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.55. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Elgin City's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Edinburgh City's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-two/2026-10-17/elgin-city-v-edinburgh-city/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:03+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.