# Spartans v Stranraer — the Match Wizard Scottish League Two, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Spartans: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Stranraer: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Spartans and Stranraer finished near neighbours last season -- 2nd and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Spartans takes 1.80 points a game, Stranraer 1.50 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Spartans -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 10 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 2nd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 10, drew 6, lost 4 of 20 -- 36 points of 60. At home against them: won 6 of 10. Away against them: won 4 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 3, lost 1 of 9 (2.00 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 6, lost 4 of 20 (1.80 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 5 of 16 (1.56 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Stranraer -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 10 after 10 games, with 20 points. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 6, drew 3, lost 5 of 14 -- 21 points of 42. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 3, lost 5 of 14 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 4, lost 6 of 16 (1.38 a game); against the bottom block won 4, drew 7, lost 4 of 15 (1.27 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in Spartans's favour: Spartans takes 1.61 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stranraer 1.52 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Spartans -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 3, lost 1 of 5, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Last season at home: won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18, scoring 22 and conceding 17 -- 1.72 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Edinburgh City 3-1 away; lost to Kelty Hearts 0-2 at home; lost to Dumbarton 0-3 away; beat Forfar Athletic 5-1 at home; beat Stirling Albion 2-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 19 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Dougie Samuel. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stranraer -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Last season away: won 7, drew 4, lost 7 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 23 -- 1.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Annan Athletic 6-1 away; drew with Edinburgh City 0-0 at home; beat Elgin City 5-1 away; beat Dumbarton 3-1 at home; beat Forfar Athletic 3-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (16, 5 apiece), most recently Chris Aitken with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Spartans scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stranraer scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Spartans scores most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 82); Spartans concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 57); Stranraer scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 67); Stranraer concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 55). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Spartans -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.2 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 82 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 82 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 7. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 46 read -- then won 17, drew 7, lost 0; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 46 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Stranraer -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 67 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 46 read -- then won 15, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Spartans's numbers over its games, Stranraer's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Spartans's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (48%). In Stranraer's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Spartans -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 46 (57%); over 1.5 in 39 (85%); over 3.5 in 16 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). At home: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 46 (28%); failed to score in 7 (15%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Spartans's own 46 matches read: Spartans or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (57%). Spartans itself held the lead in 17, winning 16. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 23. ### Stranraer -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 46 (50%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 14 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 23 (65%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 46 (63%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 46 (20%); failed to score in 11 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stranraer's own 46 matches read: Stranraer or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (39%). Stranraer itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Spartans and Stranraer finished near neighbours last season -- 2nd and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Spartans takes 1.80 points a game, Stranraer 1.50 -- nothing between them. +0.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in Spartans's favour: Spartans takes 1.61 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stranraer 1.52 away. Spartans scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stranraer scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 46 and 24 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Spartans's -- two goals clear in 17 of 46, against 11 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Spartans's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stranraer's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 46; Spartans finds its goals latest of all -- 23 of its 82 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Spartans 1.35 goals expected, Stranraer 1.53, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Spartans 2.97 (34%), the draw 4.04 (25%), Stranraer 2.41 (42%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.80 and 2.91. The widest gap is on Spartans: the market is shorter (2.05) than our 2.97 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.82 (55%), under 2.5 2.22 (45%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.38. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.72 (58%), no 2.38 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.49, no 2.42. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Spartans's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (48%). In Stranraer's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-two/2026-10-17/spartans-v-stranraer/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T02:22:52+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.