# Motherwell v Dundee United — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 5 — Wednesday, 2 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Motherwell: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee United: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Motherwell and Dundee United finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 7th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Motherwell takes 1.50 points a game, Dundee United 0.79 -- the block form is Motherwell's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Motherwell -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 12 after 3 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 6, lost 4 of 16 -- 24 points of 48. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 5 of 12 (0.92 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 6, lost 4 of 16 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 0 of 13 (2.38 a game). ### Dundee United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 12 after 4 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 7th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 5, lost 7 of 14 -- 11 points of 42. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 7 of 14 (0.79 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 4, lost 4 of 11 (1.18 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 4 of 17 (1.47 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Motherwell's favour: Motherwell takes 1.85 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 0.95 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Motherwell -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 0. Last season at home: won 10, drew 6, lost 3 of 19, scoring 32 and conceding 13 -- 1.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with St. Mirren 3-3 away; drew with Falkirk 0-0 at home; beat Hibernian 2-1 away; beat Hibernian 1-0 away; lost to Celtic 2-3 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 29 matches with one recorded (26, 3 apiece), most recently Alfred Johansson with 3. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Dundee United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 3, drew 8, lost 8 of 19, scoring 25 and conceding 38 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Kilmarnock 4-0 away; lost to Dundee 0-2 at home; lost to Hearts 0-4 away; drew with Rangers 1-1 at home; drew with St. Mirren 1-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 33 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Goodwin. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Motherwell scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Motherwell's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Motherwell scores most in the 16-30 band (16 of 64); Motherwell concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 40); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 54); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Motherwell -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 0.7 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 64 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 64 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 40 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 41 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 41 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Dundee United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.0 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 67 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 42 read -- then won 8, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 42 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Motherwell's numbers over its games, Dundee United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Motherwell's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Dundee United's own 21 away matches read, 13 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. ### Motherwell -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 41 (41%); over 1.5 in 31 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 6 of its 20 (30%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 41 (49%). At home: 7 of its 20 (35%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 41 (46%); failed to score in 8 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Motherwell's own 41 matches read: Motherwell or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (44%). Motherwell itself held the lead in 15, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ### Dundee United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 42 (50%); over 1.5 in 38 (90%); over 3.5 in 15 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 21 (57%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 42 (52%). Away: 12 of its 21 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 42 (19%); failed to score in 15 (36%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee United's own 42 matches read: Dundee United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (50%). Dundee United itself held the lead in 9, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Motherwell and Dundee United finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 7th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Motherwell takes 1.50 points a game, Dundee United 0.79 -- the block form is Motherwell's. +0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Motherwell's favour: Motherwell takes 1.85 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 0.95 away. Motherwell scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Motherwell's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Motherwell lands the first blow more often (25 of 41 to 17 of 42); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Motherwell's -- two goals clear in 15 of 41, against 9 of 42; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Motherwell's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 42. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Motherwell 1.92 goals expected, Dundee United 0.87, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Motherwell 1.61 (62%), the draw 4.64 (22%), Dundee United 6.09 (16%). The market's averages: 2.00, 3.58 and 3.35. The widest gap is on Dundee United: the market is shorter (3.35) than our 6.09 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.89 (53%), under 2.5 2.12 (47%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.71, under 2.5 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.02 (50%), no 1.98 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.18. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Motherwell's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Dundee United's own 21 away matches read, 13 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-09-02/motherwell-v-dundee-united/halftime/ Built 2026-08-31T05:34:35+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.