# Dundee United v Falkirk — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Dundee United: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Falkirk: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Dundee United and Falkirk finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 6th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee United takes 1.18 points a game, Falkirk 1.40 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Dundee United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 12 after 5 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 7th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 4, lost 4 of 11 -- 13 points of 33. At home against them: won 1 of 5. Away against them: won 2 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 8 of 15 (0.73 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 4, lost 4 of 11 (1.18 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 4 of 17 (1.47 a game). ### Falkirk -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 12 after 4 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 6th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 2, lost 4 of 10 -- 14 points of 30. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 4, lost 12 of 19 (0.68 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 4 of 10 (1.40 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 2, lost 4 of 13 (1.77 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.18 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee United's favour: Dundee United takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Falkirk 1.20 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Dundee United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 7, drew 7, lost 5 of 19, scoring 24 and conceding 22 -- 1.47 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Motherwell 0-3 away; beat Kilmarnock 4-0 away; lost to Dundee 0-2 at home; lost to Hearts 0-4 away; drew with Rangers 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 34 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Goodwin. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Falkirk -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 7, drew 2, lost 9 of 18, scoring 17 and conceding 28 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Rangers 1-2 at home; lost to Celtic 1-2 away; drew with Motherwell 0-0 away; lost to St. Mirren 0-2 at home; lost to Rangers 2-5 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 31 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John McGlynn. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Dundee United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Falkirk scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 54); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 70); Falkirk scores most in the 61-75 band (13 of 52); Falkirk concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Dundee United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 70 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 43 read -- then won 8, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 43 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ### Falkirk -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.5 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 52 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 6. - **When it concedes:** Of 68 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 16 of its 42 read -- then won 12, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 42 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Dundee United's numbers over its games, Falkirk's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (38%). In Falkirk's own 20 away matches read, 12 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. ### Dundee United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 43 (51%); over 1.5 in 39 (91%); over 3.5 in 15 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 21 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 43 (51%). At home: 10 of its 21 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 43 (19%); failed to score in 16 (37%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee United's own 43 matches read: Dundee United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (51%). Dundee United itself held the lead in 9, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21. ### Falkirk -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 42 (57%); over 1.5 in 31 (74%); over 3.5 in 13 (31%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 42 (52%). Away: 7 of its 20 (35%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 42 (24%); failed to score in 13 (31%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Falkirk's own 42 matches read: Falkirk or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (52%). Falkirk itself held the lead in 8, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Dundee United and Falkirk finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 6th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee United takes 1.18 points a game, Falkirk 1.40 -- nothing between them. +0.18 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee United's favour: Dundee United takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Falkirk 1.20 away. Dundee United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Falkirk scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (17 of 43 and 16 of 42); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 43. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Dundee United 1.22 goals expected, Falkirk 0.97, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Dundee United 2.38 (42%), the draw 3.46 (29%), Falkirk 3.44 (29%). The market's averages: 1.94, 3.58 and 3.50. The widest gap is on Dundee United: the market is shorter (1.94) than our 2.38 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.67 (37%), under 2.5 1.60 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.71, under 2.5 2.16. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.29 (44%), no 1.78 (56%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (38%). In Falkirk's own 20 away matches read, 12 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-09-05/dundee-united-v-falkirk/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.