# Hearts v Dundee — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 6 — Sunday, 6 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Hearts: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Hearts the bigger side: 2nd against 8th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hearts takes 2.69 points a game, Dundee 0.62 -- the block form is Hearts's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Hearts -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 12 after 4 games, with 9 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 2nd of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 14, drew 1, lost 1 of 16 -- 43 points of 48. At home against them: won 8 of 9. Away against them: won 6 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 4, lost 2 of 12 (1.83 a game); against the middle block won 14, drew 1, lost 1 of 16 (2.69 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 3, lost 4 of 13 (1.62 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Dundee -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 12 after 5 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 8th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 -- 8 points of 39. At home against them: won 2 of 6. Away against them: won 0 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 2, lost 7 of 12 (0.92 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 4 of 17 (1.71 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.95 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hearts's favour: Hearts takes 2.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee 0.67 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Hearts -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2, scoring 6 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 15, drew 4, lost 0 of 19, scoring 37 and conceding 11 -- 2.58 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Hibernian 3-1 away; beat St. Johnstone 2-1 at home; beat Dundee United 4-0 at home; lost to Aberdeen 1-2 away; lost to Celtic 1-3 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 25 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Derek McInnes. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Dundee -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Last season away: won 2, drew 5, lost 12 of 19, scoring 11 and conceding 33 -- 0.58 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with St. Johnstone 1-1 at home; lost to Hibernian 1-2 at home; beat Dundee United 2-0 away; beat Aberdeen 2-0 at home; lost to Celtic 0-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 31 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Steven Pressley. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Hearts scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dundee scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hearts's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Hearts scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 77); Hearts concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 38); Dundee scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Dundee concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Hearts -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.6 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 77 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 77 (22%). - **When it concedes:** Of 38 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 38 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 42 read -- then won 23, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 42 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Dundee -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 0.6 for and 1.6 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 65 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 43 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 43 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Hearts's numbers over its games, Dundee's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hearts's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Dundee's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Hearts -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 42 (57%); over 1.5 in 31 (74%); over 3.5 in 13 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 42 (50%). At home: 9 of its 21 (43%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 42 (43%); failed to score in 4 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hearts's own 42 matches read: Hearts or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (48%). Hearts itself held the lead in 16, winning 16. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21. ### Dundee -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 43 (53%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 13 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 21 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 43 (47%). Away: 6 of its 21 (29%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 43 (21%); failed to score in 16 (37%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee's own 43 matches read: Dundee or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (47%). Dundee itself held the lead in 8, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Hearts the bigger side: 2nd against 8th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hearts takes 2.69 points a game, Dundee 0.62 -- the block form is Hearts's. +1.95 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hearts's favour: Hearts takes 2.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee 0.67 away. Hearts scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dundee scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hearts's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hearts lands the first blow more often (28 of 42 to 15 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hearts's -- two goals clear in 16 of 42, against 8 of 43; Hearts finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 77 after the 75th, and Dundee concedes most in that same spell; Dundee finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th, and Hearts concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Hearts 1.98 goals expected, Dundee 0.44, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Hearts 1.35 (74%), the draw 5.38 (19%), Dundee 14 (7%). The market's averages: 1.55, 4.33 and 5.25. The widest gap is on Dundee: the market is shorter (5.25) than our 14 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.30 (44%), under 2.5 1.77 (56%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.23. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.24 (31%), no 1.45 (69%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.08. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hearts's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Dundee's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-09-06/hearts-v-dundee/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:40:27+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.