# Hibernian v Kilmarnock — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 3 — Tuesday, 15 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Hibernian: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Kilmarnock: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Hibernian the bigger side: 5th against 10th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hibernian takes 2.08 points a game, Kilmarnock 0.93 -- the block form is Hibernian's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Hibernian -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 12 after 5 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 4, lost 1 of 12 -- 25 points of 36. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 4, lost 11 of 19 (0.84 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 4, lost 1 of 11 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 1 of 12 (2.08 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 12 after 5 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 10th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 5, lost 7 of 15 -- 14 points of 45. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 1 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 2, lost 10 of 13 (0.38 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 5, lost 7 of 15 (0.93 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hibernian's favour: Hibernian takes 1.43 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kilmarnock 0.76 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Hibernian -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 8, drew 6, lost 5 of 19, scoring 32 and conceding 19 -- 1.58 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to St. Johnstone 1-2 away; lost to Hearts 1-3 at home; beat Dundee 2-1 away; beat Rangers 2-1 away; lost to Motherwell 1-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 32 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by David Gray. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 10 of 19, scoring 22 and conceding 40 -- 0.79 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Aberdeen 0-0 away; lost to St. Mirren 0-1 at home; lost to Dundee United 0-4 at home; lost to Celtic 1-5 at home; lost to St. Johnstone 3-4 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 31 matches with one recorded (17, 13, 1 apiece), most recently Neill McCann with 13. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Hibernian scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Kilmarnock scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hibernian's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kilmarnock is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Hibernian scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 65); Hibernian concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 53); Kilmarnock scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 54); Kilmarnock concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 82). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Hibernian -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.1 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 65 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 65 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 53 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 43 read -- then won 17, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 0 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 43 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 2.1 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 82 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 82 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 43 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 43 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Hibernian's numbers over its games, Kilmarnock's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hibernian's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Kilmarnock's own 21 away matches read, 11 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. ### Hibernian -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 43 (60%); over 1.5 in 34 (79%); over 3.5 in 12 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 21 (57%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 43 (58%). At home: 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 43 (26%); failed to score in 11 (26%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hibernian's own 43 matches read: Hibernian or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (49%). Hibernian itself held the lead in 15, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 43 (65%); over 1.5 in 35 (81%); over 3.5 in 19 (44%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 43 (53%). Away: 13 of its 21 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 13 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Kilmarnock's own 43 matches read: Kilmarnock or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (58%). Kilmarnock itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Hibernian the bigger side: 5th against 10th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hibernian takes 2.08 points a game, Kilmarnock 0.93 -- the block form is Hibernian's. +0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hibernian's favour: Hibernian takes 1.43 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kilmarnock 0.76 away. Hibernian scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Kilmarnock scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hibernian's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kilmarnock is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hibernian lands the first blow more often (22 of 43 to 15 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hibernian's -- two goals clear in 15 of 43, against 11 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Kilmarnock's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 43; Hibernian finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 65 after the 75th, and Kilmarnock concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Hibernian 2.01 goals expected, Kilmarnock 1.15, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Hibernian 1.75 (57%), the draw 4.68 (21%), Kilmarnock 4.69 (21%). The market's averages: 1.41, 4.50 and 5.75. The widest gap is on Kilmarnock: the market offers 5.75 against our 4.69. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.63 (61%), under 2.5 2.58 (39%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.45, under 2.5 2.41. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.69 (59%), no 2.45 (41%). The market's averages: yes 1.59, no 2.25. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hibernian's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Kilmarnock's own 21 away matches read, 11 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-09-15/hibernian-v-kilmarnock/halftime/ Built 2026-09-14T22:02:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.