# Kilmarnock v Motherwell — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 9 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Kilmarnock: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Motherwell: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Motherwell the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Kilmarnock takes 0.40 points a game, Motherwell 2.21 -- the block form is Motherwell's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Kilmarnock -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 12 after 8 games, with 5 points. Last season it finished 10th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 3, lost 11 of 15 -- 6 points of 45. At home against them: won 1 of 8. Away against them: won 0 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 3, lost 11 of 15 (0.40 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Motherwell -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 12 after 8 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 4th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 4, lost 1 of 14 -- 31 points of 42. At home against them: won 5 of 7. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 7 of 14 (0.79 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 6, lost 5 of 18 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 1 of 14 (2.21 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Motherwell's favour: Kilmarnock takes 1.13 a game at home over the last two seasons, Motherwell 1.26 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Kilmarnock -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 3 of 4, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Last season at home: won 7, drew 4, lost 8 of 19, scoring 28 and conceding 28 -- 1.32 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Rangers 1-3 away; drew with Hearts 1-1 at home; beat Hibernian 1-0 away; drew with Aberdeen 0-0 away; lost to St. Mirren 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 34 matches with one recorded (17, 16, 1 apiece), most recently Neill McCann with 16. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Motherwell -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Last season away: won 6, drew 7, lost 6 of 19, scoring 27 and conceding 23 -- 1.32 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Celtic 0-2 at home; lost to Dundee 1-2 away; lost to Aberdeen 0-4 at home; lost to Rangers 0-1 away; beat Dundee United 3-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 34 matches with one recorded (26, 8 apiece), most recently Alfred Johansson with 8. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Kilmarnock scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Motherwell scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Kilmarnock scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 57); Kilmarnock concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 86); Motherwell scores most in the 16-30 band (17 of 68); Motherwell concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 49). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Kilmarnock -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.7 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 57 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 86 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 86 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Motherwell -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 68 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16. - **When it concedes:** Of 49 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 49 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 46 read -- then won 17, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 46 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Kilmarnock's numbers over its games, Motherwell's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kilmarnock's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Motherwell's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Kilmarnock -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 46 (63%); over 1.5 in 37 (80%); over 3.5 in 20 (43%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 46 (54%). At home: 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 46 (24%); failed to score in 13 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Kilmarnock's own 46 matches read: Kilmarnock or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (57%). Kilmarnock itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 23. ### Motherwell -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 46 (43%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 13 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 46 (46%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 46 (43%); failed to score in 11 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Motherwell's own 46 matches read: Motherwell or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (48%). Motherwell itself held the lead in 16, winning 14. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Motherwell the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Kilmarnock takes 0.40 points a game, Motherwell 2.21 -- the block form is Motherwell's. -0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Motherwell's favour: Kilmarnock takes 1.13 a game at home over the last two seasons, Motherwell 1.26 away. Kilmarnock scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Motherwell scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Motherwell lands the first blow more often (26 of 46 to 17 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Motherwell's -- two goals clear in 16 of 46, against 11 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Kilmarnock's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Motherwell's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 46. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Kilmarnock 1.17 goals expected, Motherwell 1.85, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Kilmarnock 4.16 (24%), the draw 4.39 (23%), Motherwell 1.88 (53%). The market's averages: 2.82, 3.60 and 2.04. The widest gap is on Kilmarnock: the market is shorter (2.82) than our 4.16 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.72 (58%), under 2.5 2.39 (42%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.60, under 2.5 2.30. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.72 (58%), no 2.39 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.42. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kilmarnock's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Motherwell's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-10-17/kilmarnock-v-motherwell/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:24+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.