# St. Johnstone v Dundee United — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 9 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. St. Johnstone: 44 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Dundee United: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **St. Johnstone is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### St. Johnstone -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 12 after 8 games, with 11 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish Championship, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 10, drew 8, lost 1 of 19 -- 38 points of 57. At home against them: won 5 of 10. Away against them: won 5 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 2, lost 4 of 10 (1.40 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 8, lost 1 of 19 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 11, drew 3, lost 1 of 15 (2.40 a game). ### Dundee United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 12 after 8 games, with 11 points. Last season it finished 7th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division, and none of the matches we hold were against that block -- nothing to read. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 8 of 15 (0.73 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 4 of 13 (1.31 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 7, lost 4 of 18 (1.56 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in St. Johnstone's favour: St. Johnstone takes 2.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### St. Johnstone -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Last season at home in the Scottish Championship: won 11, drew 6, lost 1 of 18, scoring 37 and conceding 11 -- 2.17 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Aberdeen 1-0 away; drew with Falkirk 1-1 at home; lost to Celtic 0-1 at home; beat Hibernian 2-1 at home; drew with Dundee 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 20 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Simo Valakari. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Dundee United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Last season away: won 3, drew 8, lost 8 of 19, scoring 25 and conceding 38 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Hibernian 1-0 at home; beat St. Mirren 3-0 away; drew with Falkirk 1-1 at home; lost to Motherwell 0-3 away; beat Kilmarnock 4-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 37 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Goodwin. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **St. Johnstone scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: St. Johnstone's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: St. Johnstone scores most in the 16-30 band (18 of 77); St. Johnstone concedes most in the 46-60 band (9 of 35); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 59); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 71). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### St. Johnstone -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.8 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 77 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 77 (23%). - **When it concedes:** Of 35 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 5. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 44 read -- then won 21, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 44 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### Dundee United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.0 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 59 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 71 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 19 of its 46 read -- then won 10, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 46 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- St. Johnstone's numbers over its games, Dundee United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In St. Johnstone's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Dundee United's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games. ### St. Johnstone -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 44 (45%); over 1.5 in 29 (66%); over 3.5 in 12 (27%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 44 (45%). At home: 10 of its 22 (45%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 44 (48%); failed to score in 9 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over St. Johnstone's own 44 matches read: St. Johnstone or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (41%). St. Johnstone itself held the lead in 15, winning 15. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ### Dundee United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 46 (50%); over 1.5 in 41 (89%); over 3.5 in 15 (33%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 46 (50%). Away: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 16 (35%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee United's own 46 matches read: Dundee United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (50%). Dundee United itself held the lead in 10, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **St. Johnstone is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in St. Johnstone's favour: St. Johnstone takes 2.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 1.00 away. St. Johnstone scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: St. Johnstone's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: St. Johnstone lands the first blow more often (23 of 44 to 19 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often St. Johnstone's -- two goals clear in 15 of 44, against 10 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 46. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: St. Johnstone 2.26 goals expected, Dundee United 0.98, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: St. Johnstone's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: St. Johnstone 1.51 (66%), the draw 5.35 (19%), Dundee United 6.70 (15%). The market's averages: 2.48, 3.50 and 2.50. The widest gap is on St. Johnstone: the market offers 2.48 against our 1.51. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.59 (63%), under 2.5 2.69 (37%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.73, under 2.5 2.03. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.79 (56%), no 2.27 (44%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.20. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In St. Johnstone's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Dundee United's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-10-17/st-johnstone-v-dundee-united/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T02:23:12+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.