# Celtic v Hearts — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 9 — Sunday, 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Celtic: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Hearts: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Celtic and Hearts finished near neighbours last season -- 1st and 2nd of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Celtic takes 1.50 points a game, Hearts 1.83 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Celtic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 12 after 8 games, with 21 points. Last season it finished 1st of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 3, lost 5 of 14 -- 21 points of 42. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 3, lost 5 of 14 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 1, lost 4 of 16 (2.12 a game); against the bottom block won 15, drew 0, lost 0 of 15 (3.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Hearts -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 12 after 8 games, with 16 points. Last season it finished 2nd of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 4, lost 2 of 12 -- 22 points of 36. At home against them: won 4 of 6. Away against them: won 2 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 4, lost 2 of 12 (1.83 a game); against the middle block won 15, drew 1, lost 2 of 18 (2.56 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 4 of 15 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.87 points a game is the venue form gap, in Celtic's favour: Celtic takes 2.39 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hearts 1.52 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Celtic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 0, lost 1 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 15, drew 1, lost 3 of 19, scoring 43 and conceding 15 -- 2.42 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Motherwell 2-0 away; lost to Rangers 0-1 at home; beat St. Johnstone 1-0 away; beat St. Mirren 2-1 away; beat Aberdeen 3-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 31 matches with one recorded (20, 9, 2 apiece), most recently Martin O'Neill with 20. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Hearts -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Last season away: won 9, drew 4, lost 6 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 23 -- 1.63 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat St. Mirren 5-0 at home; drew with Kilmarnock 1-1 away; lost to Falkirk 1-2 away; beat Dundee 2-1 at home; beat Hibernian 3-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 25 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Derek McInnes. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Celtic scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Hearts scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Celtic scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 89); Celtic concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 45); Hearts scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 86); Hearts concedes most in the 16-30 band (10 of 42). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Celtic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 2.1 for and 0.7 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 89 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 89 (21%). - **When it concedes:** Of 45 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 4. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 29 of its 46 read -- then won 26, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 7 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 46 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ### Hearts -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 86 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 86 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 42 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 9. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 29 of its 46 read -- then won 24, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 5 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 46 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Celtic's numbers over its games, Hearts's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Celtic's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Hearts's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Celtic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 46 (65%); over 1.5 in 36 (78%); over 3.5 in 17 (37%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 23 (70%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 46 (54%). At home: 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 46 (37%); failed to score in 6 (13%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Celtic's own 46 matches read: Celtic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (54%). Celtic itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 23. ### Hearts -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 46 (59%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 14 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 46 (52%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 46 (41%); failed to score in 4 (9%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hearts's own 46 matches read: Hearts or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (46%). Hearts itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Celtic and Hearts finished near neighbours last season -- 1st and 2nd of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Celtic takes 1.50 points a game, Hearts 1.83 -- nothing between them. +0.87 points a game is the venue form gap, in Celtic's favour: Celtic takes 2.39 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hearts 1.52 away. Celtic scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Hearts scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (29 of 46 and 29 of 46); Celtic finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 89 after the 75th; Hearts finds its goals latest of all -- 21 of its 86 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Celtic 1.69 goals expected, Hearts 1.04, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Celtic 1.90 (53%), the draw 4.14 (24%), Hearts 4.29 (23%). The market's averages: 1.45, 4.20 and 4.65. The widest gap is on Celtic: the market is shorter (1.45) than our 1.90 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.95 (51%), under 2.5 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.53, under 2.5 2.50. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.90 (53%), no 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Celtic's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Hearts's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-10-18/celtic-v-hearts/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:06:18+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.