# Celtic v Dundee United — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 11 — Wednesday, 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Celtic: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee United: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Celtic the bigger side: 1st against 7th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Celtic takes 2.18 points a game, Dundee United 0.73 -- the block form is Celtic's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Celtic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 12 after 10 games, with 27 points. Last season it finished 1st of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 12, drew 1, lost 4 of 17 -- 37 points of 51. At home against them: won 7 of 9. Away against them: won 5 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 7, drew 3, lost 5 of 15 (1.60 a game); against the middle block won 12, drew 1, lost 4 of 17 (2.18 a game); against the bottom block won 15, drew 0, lost 0 of 15 (3.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Dundee United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 12 after 10 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 7th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 5, lost 8 of 15 -- 11 points of 45. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 8 of 15 (0.73 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 4 of 13 (1.31 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 7, lost 4 of 19 (1.63 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Celtic's favour: Celtic takes 2.42 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Celtic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 4, drew 0, lost 1 of 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 15, drew 1, lost 3 of 19, scoring 43 and conceding 15 -- 2.42 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Hibernian 2-1 away; beat Hearts 7-1 at home; beat Motherwell 2-0 away; lost to Rangers 0-1 at home; beat St. Johnstone 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 33 matches with one recorded (22, 9, 2 apiece), most recently Martin O'Neill with 22. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Dundee United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Last season away: won 3, drew 8, lost 8 of 19, scoring 25 and conceding 38 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Aberdeen 3-2 at home; drew with St. Johnstone 1-1 away; beat Hibernian 1-0 at home; beat St. Mirren 3-0 away; drew with Falkirk 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 39 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim Goodwin. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Celtic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Celtic scores most in the 31-45+ band (21 of 98); Celtic concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 47); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (15 of 63); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (18 of 74). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Celtic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 2.3 for and 0.8 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 98 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 18; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 20. - **When it concedes:** Of 47 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 4. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 30 of its 48 read -- then won 27, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 8 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 28 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 48 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ### Dundee United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.9 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 74 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Celtic's numbers over its games, Dundee United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Celtic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (62%). In Dundee United's own 24 away matches read, 15 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. ### Celtic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 48 (67%); over 1.5 in 38 (79%); over 3.5 in 18 (38%). At home: over 2.5 in 17 of its 24 (71%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 48 (56%). At home: 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 48 (35%); failed to score in 6 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Celtic's own 48 matches read: Celtic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (54%). Celtic itself held the lead in 18, winning 18. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 24. ### Dundee United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 48 (50%); over 1.5 in 43 (90%); over 3.5 in 16 (33%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 48 (52%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 48 (21%); failed to score in 16 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee United's own 48 matches read: Dundee United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (48%). Dundee United itself held the lead in 10, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Celtic the bigger side: 1st against 7th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Celtic takes 2.18 points a game, Dundee United 0.73 -- the block form is Celtic's. +1.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Celtic's favour: Celtic takes 2.42 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 1.00 away. Celtic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Celtic lands the first blow more often (30 of 48 to 20 of 48); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Celtic's -- two goals clear in 18 of 48, against 10 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 48. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Celtic 2.55 goals expected, Dundee United 0.94, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Celtic 1.39 (72%), the draw 6.20 (16%), Dundee United 8.50 (12%). The market's averages: 1.28, 5.70 and 8.00. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (68%), under 2.5 3.09 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.33, under 2.5 3.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.78 (56%), no 2.28 (44%). The market's averages: yes 1.61, no 2.25. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Celtic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (62%). In Dundee United's own 24 away matches read, 15 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-10-28/celtic-v-dundee-united/halftime/ Built 2026-10-26T09:03:16+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.