# Dundee v Kilmarnock — the Match Wizard Scottish Premiership, game week 11 — Wednesday, 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Dundee: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Kilmarnock: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Dundee and Kilmarnock finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 10th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee takes 1.61 points a game, Kilmarnock 1.00 -- the block form is Dundee's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Dundee -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 12 after 10 games, with 14 points. Last season it finished 8th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 5, lost 5 of 18 -- 29 points of 54. At home against them: won 7 of 9. Away against them: won 1 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 3, lost 10 of 16 (0.75 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 7 of 13 (1.08 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 5 of 18 (1.61 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 12 after 10 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 10th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 5, lost 8 of 17 -- 17 points of 51. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 11 of 16 (0.56 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 8 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.83 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee's favour: Dundee takes 1.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kilmarnock 0.79 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Dundee -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 2, lost 1 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Last season at home: won 9, drew 4, lost 6 of 19, scoring 31 and conceding 28 -- 1.63 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to St. Mirren 1-2 away; drew with Rangers 2-2 at home; beat Falkirk 2-1 away; beat Motherwell 2-1 at home; lost to Hearts 1-2 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Steven Pressley. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 3 of 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 10 of 19, scoring 22 and conceding 40 -- 0.79 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Falkirk 0-3 away; beat Motherwell 3-2 at home; lost to Rangers 1-3 away; drew with Hearts 1-1 at home; beat Hibernian 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 36 matches with one recorded (18, 17, 1 apiece), most recently Neill McCann with 18. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Dundee scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Kilmarnock scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Dundee's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kilmarnock is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Dundee scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 56); Dundee concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 73); Kilmarnock scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 60); Kilmarnock concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 91). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Dundee -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.4 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 56 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 56 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 73 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 73 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 48 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 2.1 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 60 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 91 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 91 (21%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 48 read -- then won 10, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 48 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Dundee's numbers over its games, Kilmarnock's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (54%). In Kilmarnock's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games. ### Dundee -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 48 (58%); over 1.5 in 36 (75%); over 3.5 in 14 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 24 (67%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 48 (52%). At home: 16 of its 24 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 48 (19%); failed to score in 16 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dundee's own 48 matches read: Dundee or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (46%). Dundee itself held the lead in 9, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24. ### Kilmarnock -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 48 (65%); over 1.5 in 39 (81%); over 3.5 in 21 (44%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 24 (67%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 48 (54%). Away: 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 48 (23%); failed to score in 14 (29%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Kilmarnock's own 48 matches read: Kilmarnock or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (56%). Kilmarnock itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Dundee and Kilmarnock finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 10th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee takes 1.61 points a game, Kilmarnock 1.00 -- the block form is Dundee's. +0.83 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee's favour: Dundee takes 1.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kilmarnock 0.79 away. Dundee scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Kilmarnock scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Dundee's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kilmarnock is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (18 of 48 and 18 of 48); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Kilmarnock's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 48; Dundee finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 56 after the 75th, and Kilmarnock concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Dundee 2.02 goals expected, Kilmarnock 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Dundee 1.85 (54%), the draw 4.65 (21%), Kilmarnock 4.07 (25%). The market's averages: 1.94, 3.70 and 3.50. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.70) than our 4.65 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.55 (65%), under 2.5 2.83 (35%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.37. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.58 (63%), no 2.73 (37%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (54%). In Kilmarnock's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-premiership/2026-10-28/dundee-v-kilmarnock/halftime/ Built 2026-10-26T09:03:12+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.