# Burnley W v Bristol City Women — the Match Wizard Women's Championship, game week 4 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 12:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Burnley W: 3 league matches in the bank. Bristol City Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Burnley W is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Burnley W -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 12 after 3 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th), and none of the matches we hold were against that block -- nothing to read. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the middle block won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ### Bristol City Women -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 12 after 3 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 0, lost 5 of 6 (0.50 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 1, lost 4 of 10 (1.60 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 3, lost 0 of 8 (2.25 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-1.46 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bristol City Women's favour: Burnley W takes 0.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bristol City Women 1.46 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Burnley W -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 1 and conceding 2. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Wolverhampton Wanderers W 0-3 away; lost to Sunderland Women 1-2 at home; drew with Watford LFC 0-0 away. - **The dugout:** Our feed records no manager against any of its banked matches, so the dugout cannot be read. ### Bristol City Women -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Last season away: won 4, drew 4, lost 3 of 11, scoring 22 and conceding 20 -- 1.45 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Watford LFC 5-1 away; lost to Newcastle United W 0-1 at home; lost to Sunderland Women 1-4 away; beat Sheffield United Ladies 4-0 away; beat Newcastle United W 2-1 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Our feed records no manager against any of its banked matches, so the dugout cannot be read. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Burnley W scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Bristol City Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Burnley W scores most in the 31-45+ band (1 of 1); Burnley W concedes most in the 31-45+ band (3 of 5); Bristol City Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 53); Bristol City Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 37). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Burnley W -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.3 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 3 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 2.0 against over 1. - **When it scores:** Of 1 scored across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 0; 76-90+: 0. - **When it concedes:** Of 5 conceded across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 0; 76-90+: 1. - **The first goal:** Conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 0 wins and 0 draws from them. - **Two-goal swings:** Never led by two goals in its 3 read; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing. ### Bristol City Women -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 2.2 for and 1.9 against over 13. - **When it scores:** Of 53 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 53 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 37 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 37 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 25 read -- then won 11, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 25 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 27%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Burnley W's numbers over its games, Bristol City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley W's own 1 home matches read, one appeared in 0 (0%). In Bristol City Women's own 13 away matches read, 7 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 27% of games. ### Burnley W -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 2 of its own 3 (67%); over 1.5 in 2 (67%); over 3.5 in 0 (0%). At home: over 2.5 in 1 of its 1 (100%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 1 of its own 3 (33%). At home: 1 of its 1 (100%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 3 (33%); failed to score in 2 (67%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Burnley W's own 3 matches read: Burnley W or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 1 (33%). Burnley W itself held the lead in 0. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 0 of 1. ### Bristol City Women -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 25 (72%); over 1.5 in 22 (88%); over 3.5 in 12 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 13 (77%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 15 of its own 25 (60%). Away: 10 of its 13 (77%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 25 (24%); failed to score in 4 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Bristol City Women's own 25 matches read: Bristol City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (56%). Bristol City Women itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 13. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Burnley W is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -1.46 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bristol City Women's favour: Burnley W takes 0.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bristol City Women 1.46 away. Burnley W scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Bristol City Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 27%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Bristol City Women lands the first blow more often (15 of 25 to 0 of 3); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Bristol City Women's -- two goals clear in 10 of 25, against 0 of 3; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Bristol City Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 25; Bristol City Women finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 53 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Burnley W 1.73 goals expected, Bristol City Women 2.03, from two seasons of scoring rates (1 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Burnley W 3.00 (33%), the draw 4.72 (21%), Bristol City Women 2.20 (45%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.38 (72%), under 2.5 3.63 (28%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.46, under 2.5 2.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.40 (71%), no 3.50 (29%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley W's own 1 home matches read, one appeared in 0 (0%). In Bristol City Women's own 13 away matches read, 7 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 27% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/womens-championship/2026-09-26/burnley-w-v-bristol-city-women/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T16:34:44+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.