# Newcastle United W v Leicester City WFC — the Match Wizard Women's Championship, game week 4 — Sunday, 27 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Newcastle United W: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Leicester City WFC: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the Women's Super League. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Leicester City WFC is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Newcastle United W -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 12 after 3 games, with 9 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 6th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 4 of 9 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 0 of 6 (2.33 a game); against the bottom block won 4, drew 4, lost 1 of 9 (1.78 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Leicester City WFC -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 12 after 3 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Women's Super League, where it finished 12th of 12. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 6 of 8 -- 4 points of 24. At home against them: won 1 of 4. Away against them: won 0 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 0, lost 8 of 8 (0.00 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 1, lost 6 of 8 (0.50 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 2, lost 4 of 9 (1.22 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.35 points a game is the venue form gap, in Newcastle United W's favour: Newcastle United W takes 1.77 a game at home over the last two seasons, Leicester City WFC 0.42 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Newcastle United W -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2, scoring 6 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 4, drew 5, lost 2 of 11, scoring 13 and conceding 8 -- 1.55 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Sheffield United Ladies 4-1 at home; beat Bristol City Women 1-0 away; beat Wolverhampton Wanderers W 2-0 at home; lost to Durham Women 0-1 at home; lost to Bristol City Women 1-2 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 9 matches with one recorded (7, 2 apiece), most recently Tanya Oxtoby with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Leicester City WFC -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 1 and conceding 0. Last season away in the Women's Super League: won 0, drew 2, lost 9 of 11, scoring 3 and conceding 32 -- 0.18 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Ipswich Town W 0-1 at home; beat Durham Women 4-2 at home; beat Sheffield United Ladies 1-0 away; lost to Everton Women 0-1 away in the Women's Super League; lost to Chelsea Women 1-3 at home in the Women's Super League. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 9 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Rick Passmoor. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Newcastle United W scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Leicester City WFC scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Leicester City WFC's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Newcastle United W is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Newcastle United W scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 39); Newcastle United W concedes most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 26); Leicester City WFC scores most in the 31-45+ band (5 of 16); Leicester City WFC concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 55). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Newcastle United W -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 0.7 against over 13. - **When it scores:** Of 39 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 39 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 26 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 3. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 25 read -- then won 11, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 9 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 25 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### Leicester City WFC -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.6 and concedes 2.2 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 0.3 for and 2.7 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 16 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 5. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 5 of 16 (31%). - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 55 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 5 of its 25 read -- then won 3, drew 0, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 25 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newcastle United W's numbers over its games, Leicester City WFC's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United W's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (38%). In Leicester City WFC's own 12 away matches read, 6 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. ### Newcastle United W -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 25 (44%); over 1.5 in 20 (80%); over 3.5 in 6 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 3 of its 13 (23%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 17 of its own 25 (68%). At home: 6 of its 13 (46%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 25 (24%); failed to score in 3 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Newcastle United W's own 25 matches read: Newcastle United W or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 11 (44%). Newcastle United W itself held the lead in 8, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 13. ### Leicester City WFC -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 12 of its own 25 (48%); over 1.5 in 16 (64%); over 3.5 in 8 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 5 of its 12 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 10 of its own 25 (40%). Away: 3 of its 12 (25%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 4 of its own 25 (16%); failed to score in 12 (48%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Leicester City WFC's own 25 matches read: Leicester City WFC or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (52%). Leicester City WFC itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 12. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Leicester City WFC is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.35 points a game is the venue form gap, in Newcastle United W's favour: Newcastle United W takes 1.77 a game at home over the last two seasons, Leicester City WFC 0.42 away. Newcastle United W scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Leicester City WFC scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Leicester City WFC's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Newcastle United W is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Newcastle United W lands the first blow more often (15 of 25 to 5 of 25); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Newcastle United W's -- two goals clear in 8 of 25, against 1 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newcastle United W's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 25; Newcastle United W finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 39 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Newcastle United W 2.16 goals expected, Leicester City WFC 0.45, from two seasons of scoring rates (13 home matches and 12 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Leicester City WFC's figures include last season in the Women's Super League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Newcastle United W 1.29 (77%), the draw 6.09 (16%), Leicester City WFC 16 (6%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.06 (48%), under 2.5 1.94 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.83, under 2.5 1.83. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.12 (32%), no 1.47 (68%). The market's averages: yes 1.74, no 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United W's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (38%). In Leicester City WFC's own 12 away matches read, 6 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/womens-championship/2026-09-27/newcastle-united-w-v-leicester-city-wfc/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T23:05:14+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.