# Sheffield United Ladies v Durham Women — the Match Wizard Women's Championship, game week 4 — Sunday, 27 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Sheffield United Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Durham Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Sheffield United Ladies and Durham Women finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 10th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.50 points a game, Durham Women 1.67 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Sheffield United Ladies -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 12 after 3 games, with 0 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 11th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 0, lost 3 of 6 -- 9 points of 18. At home against them: won 3 of 3. Away against them: won 0 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 2, lost 5 of 8 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 0, drew 4, lost 5 of 9 (0.44 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 0, lost 3 of 6 (1.50 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2 (0.00 a game). ### Durham Women -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 12 after 3 games, with 0 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 10th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6 -- 10 points of 18. At home against them: won 2 of 3. Away against them: won 1 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 3, lost 5 of 8 (0.38 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 3, lost 5 of 10 (0.90 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sheffield United Ladies's favour: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Durham Women 0.58 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Sheffield United Ladies -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 3, drew 3, lost 5 of 11, scoring 10 and conceding 19 -- 1.09 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Newcastle United W 1-4 away; lost to Wolverhampton Wanderers W 1-3 away; lost to Leicester City WFC 0-1 at home; lost to Bristol City Women 0-4 at home; lost to Durham Women 1-2 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 4 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Ash Thompson. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Durham Women -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 2 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 8 of 11, scoring 11 and conceding 22 -- 0.64 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Nottingham Forest Ladies 1-2 at home; lost to Leicester City WFC 2-4 away; lost to Southampton W 1-3 at home; beat Newcastle United W 1-0 away; beat Sheffield United Ladies 2-1 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 9 matches with one recorded (4, 3, 2 apiece), most recently Willie Kirk with 3. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Sheffield United Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Durham Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Sheffield United Ladies scores most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 23); Sheffield United Ladies concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 51); Durham Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 31); Durham Women concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 44). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Sheffield United Ladies -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.7 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 23 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 3. - **When it concedes:** Of 51 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 15. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 4, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 0 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 1 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 25 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Durham Women -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 2.2 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 31 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 31 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 44 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 4, drew 3, lost 4; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 25 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 70%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Sheffield United Ladies's numbers over its games, Durham Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sheffield United Ladies's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (50%). In Durham Women's own 12 away matches read, 10 (83%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. ### Sheffield United Ladies -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 25 (60%); over 1.5 in 20 (80%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 16 of its own 25 (64%). At home: 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 25 (4%); failed to score in 9 (36%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Sheffield United Ladies's own 25 matches read: Sheffield United Ladies or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (52%). Sheffield United Ladies itself held the lead in 4, winning 4. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 12. ### Durham Women -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 25 (68%); over 1.5 in 23 (92%); over 3.5 in 6 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 12 (75%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 19 of its own 25 (76%). Away: 8 of its 12 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 4 of its own 25 (16%); failed to score in 3 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Durham Women's own 25 matches read: Durham Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (56%). Durham Women itself held the lead in 3, winning 3. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 12. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Sheffield United Ladies and Durham Women finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 10th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.50 points a game, Durham Women 1.67 -- nothing between them. +0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sheffield United Ladies's favour: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Durham Women 0.58 away. Sheffield United Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Durham Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 70%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (11 of 25 and 11 of 25); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sheffield United Ladies's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Durham Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 25; Durham Women finds its goals latest of all -- 9 of its 31 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Sheffield United Ladies 1.34 goals expected, Durham Women 1.35, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 12 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Sheffield United Ladies 2.71 (37%), the draw 3.86 (26%), Durham Women 2.69 (37%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 1.97. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.83 (55%), no 2.20 (45%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sheffield United Ladies's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (50%). In Durham Women's own 12 away matches read, 10 (83%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/womens-championship/2026-09-27/sheffield-united-ladies-v-durham-women/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T23:05:13+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.