# Southampton W v Nottingham Forest Ladies — the Match Wizard Women's Championship, game week 4 — Sunday, 27 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Southampton W: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Southampton W and Nottingham Forest Ladies finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 7th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Southampton W takes 0.71 points a game, Nottingham Forest Ladies 1.33 -- the block form is Nottingham Forest Ladies's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Southampton W -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 12 after 3 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 2, lost 4 of 7 -- 5 points of 21. At home against them: won 0 of 3. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 3 of 8 (1.38 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 2, lost 4 of 7 (0.71 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 3, lost 0 of 10 (2.40 a game). ### Nottingham Forest Ladies -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 12 after 3 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 7th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 2, lost 2 of 6 -- 8 points of 18. At home against them: won 1 of 3. Away against them: won 1 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 0, lost 7 of 8 (0.38 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 2, lost 2 of 6 (1.33 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 2, lost 1 of 10 (2.30 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Nottingham Forest Ladies's favour: Southampton W takes 1.33 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest Ladies 1.46 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Southampton W -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 0. Last season at home: won 4, drew 3, lost 4 of 11, scoring 23 and conceding 14 -- 1.36 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Sunderland Women 0-0 away; drew with Ipswich Town W 0-0 at home; beat Durham Women 3-1 away; beat Nottingham Forest Ladies 3-0 away; drew with Charlton Athletic Ladies 2-2 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 8 matches with one recorded (7, 1 apiece), most recently Simon Parker with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Nottingham Forest Ladies -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 4, drew 3, lost 4 of 11, scoring 11 and conceding 16 -- 1.36 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Durham Women 2-1 away; drew with Watford LFC 2-2 at home; drew with Ipswich Town W 1-1 away; lost to Southampton W 0-3 at home; beat Portsmouth Ladies 1-0 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 9 matches with one recorded (7, 2 apiece), most recently Tom Mallinson with 2. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Southampton W scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Nottingham Forest Ladies scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Nottingham Forest Ladies's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Southampton W is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Southampton W scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 47); Southampton W concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 27); Nottingham Forest Ladies scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 32); Nottingham Forest Ladies concedes most in the 1-15 band (10 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Southampton W -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.2 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 47 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 47 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 27 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 27 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 9, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 11 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 25 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ### Nottingham Forest Ladies -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 13. - **When it scores:** Of 32 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 0; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 32 (34%). - **When it concedes:** Of 39 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 10 of 39 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 10 of its 25 read -- then won 7, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 25 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 29%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Southampton W's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest Ladies's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southampton W's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (42%). In Nottingham Forest Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 2 (15%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 29% of games. ### Southampton W -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 14 of its own 25 (56%); over 1.5 in 18 (72%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 12 (58%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 13 of its own 25 (52%). At home: 7 of its 12 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 25 (32%); failed to score in 7 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Southampton W's own 25 matches read: Southampton W or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (48%). Southampton W itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 12. ### Nottingham Forest Ladies -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 25 (60%); over 1.5 in 20 (80%); over 3.5 in 6 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 6 of its 13 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 15 of its own 25 (60%). Away: 8 of its 13 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 25 (20%); failed to score in 6 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Nottingham Forest Ladies's own 25 matches read: Nottingham Forest Ladies or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (52%). Nottingham Forest Ladies itself held the lead in 4, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 13. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Southampton W and Nottingham Forest Ladies finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 7th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Southampton W takes 0.71 points a game, Nottingham Forest Ladies 1.33 -- the block form is Nottingham Forest Ladies's. -0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Nottingham Forest Ladies's favour: Southampton W takes 1.33 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest Ladies 1.46 away. Southampton W scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Nottingham Forest Ladies scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Nottingham Forest Ladies's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Southampton W is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 29%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (11 of 25 and 10 of 25); Nottingham Forest Ladies is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (10 of its 39 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Southampton W's -- two goals clear in 10 of 25, against 4 of 25; Southampton W finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 47 after the 75th; Nottingham Forest Ladies finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 32 after the 75th, and Southampton W concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Southampton W 1.64 goals expected, Nottingham Forest Ladies 1.05, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Southampton W 1.96 (51%), the draw 4.06 (25%), Nottingham Forest Ladies 4.10 (24%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.68, under 2.5 2.02. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.91 (52%), no 2.10 (48%). The market's averages: yes 1.56, no 2.18. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southampton W's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (42%). In Nottingham Forest Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 2 (15%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 29% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/womens-championship/2026-09-27/southampton-w-v-nottingham-forest-ladies/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T23:05:11+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.