# Chelsea Women v Arsenal Women — the Match Wizard Women's Super League, game week 4 — Sunday, 27 September 2026, kick-off 16:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Chelsea Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Chelsea Women and Arsenal Women finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 2nd of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Chelsea Women takes 1.57 points a game, Arsenal Women 1.43 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 14 after 3 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 3rd of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 2, lost 2 of 7 -- 11 points of 21. At home against them: won 2 of 3. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 2 of 7 (1.57 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 1, lost 1 of 8 (2.38 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 2, lost 0 of 9 (2.56 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Arsenal Women -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 14 after 3 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 2nd of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 4, lost 1 of 7 -- 10 points of 21. At home against them: won 1 of 4. Away against them: won 1 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 1 of 7 (1.43 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 2, lost 0 of 9 (2.56 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 1, lost 0 of 8 (2.75 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Chelsea Women's favour: Chelsea Women takes 2.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arsenal Women 2.25 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 9, drew 0, lost 2 of 11, scoring 20 and conceding 8 -- 2.45 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Birmingham City Women 2-0 at home; beat Manchester United Women 5-0 away; drew with Aston Villa Ladies 1-1 at home; beat Manchester United Women 1-0 at home; beat Leicester City WFC 3-1 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 11 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Sonia Bompastor. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Arsenal Women -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 1 and conceding 0. Last season away: won 7, drew 3, lost 1 of 11, scoring 25 and conceding 8 -- 2.18 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Manchester United Women 1-1 at home; drew with Crystal Palace Ladies 0-0 at home; beat Brighton & Hove Albion Women 1-0 away; beat Liverpool Women 3-1 away; beat Everton Women 1-0 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 14 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Renee Slegers. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Arsenal Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Chelsea Women scores most in the 1-15 band (14 of 52); Chelsea Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (6 of 21); Arsenal Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 55); Arsenal Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 15). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.1 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 0.7 against over 13. - **When it scores:** Of 52 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 52 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 21 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 3. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 25 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 4 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 25 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Arsenal Women -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.2 and concedes 0.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 2.2 for and 0.7 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 55 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 55 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 15 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 15 (27%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 25 read -- then won 14, drew 1, lost 0; conceded first in 6 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 25 read, winning 11 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 1. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 44% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea Women's numbers over its games, Arsenal Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (54%). In Arsenal Women's own 12 away matches read, 7 (58%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 25 (44%); over 1.5 in 21 (84%); over 3.5 in 8 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 4 of its 13 (31%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 12 of its own 25 (48%). At home: 4 of its 13 (31%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 25 (44%); failed to score in 2 (8%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Chelsea Women's own 25 matches read: Chelsea Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (60%). Chelsea Women itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 13. ### Arsenal Women -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 25 (44%); over 1.5 in 17 (68%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 12 of its own 25 (48%). Away: 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 25 (52%); failed to score in 4 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Arsenal Women's own 25 matches read: Arsenal Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 11 (44%). Arsenal Women itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 12. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Chelsea Women and Arsenal Women finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 2nd of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Chelsea Women takes 1.57 points a game, Arsenal Women 1.43 -- nothing between them. +0.13 points a game is the venue form gap, in Chelsea Women's favour: Chelsea Women takes 2.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arsenal Women 2.25 away. Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Arsenal Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 44% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Chelsea Women lands the first blow more often (21 of 25 to 15 of 25); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Chelsea Women's -- two goals clear in 13 of 25, against 11 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Chelsea Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 25; Arsenal Women finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 55 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Chelsea Women 1.05 goals expected, Arsenal Women 1.25, from two seasons of scoring rates (13 home matches and 12 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Chelsea Women 3.22 (31%), the draw 3.55 (28%), Arsenal Women 2.45 (41%). The market's averages: 2.23, 3.38 and 2.76. The widest gap is on Chelsea Women: the market is shorter (2.23) than our 3.22 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.47 (40%), under 2.5 1.68 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.93, under 2.5 1.83. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.15 (46%), no 1.87 (54%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.25. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (54%). In Arsenal Women's own 12 away matches read, 7 (58%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/wsl/2026-09-27/chelsea-women-v-arsenal-women/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T23:05:17+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.