# Tottenham Hotspur Women v Aston Villa Ladies — the Match Wizard Women's Super League, game week 4 — Sunday, 27 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Tottenham Hotspur Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Aston Villa Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Tottenham Hotspur Women the bigger side: 5th against 9th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 2.50 points a game, Aston Villa Ladies 0.67 -- the block form is Tottenham Hotspur Women's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Tottenham Hotspur Women -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 14 after 3 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (5th to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (9th to 12th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 1, lost 1 of 10 -- 25 points of 30. At home against them: won 5 of 5. Away against them: won 3 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 3, lost 5 of 8 (0.38 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 0, lost 2 of 6 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 1, lost 1 of 10 (2.50 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Aston Villa Ladies -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 14 after 3 games, with 2 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 9th of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (9th to 12th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (5th to 8th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 3, lost 5 of 9 -- 6 points of 27. At home against them: won 1 of 4. Away against them: won 0 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 3, lost 6 of 10 (0.60 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 3, lost 5 of 9 (0.67 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6 (1.67 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tottenham Hotspur Women's favour: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aston Villa Ladies 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Tottenham Hotspur Women -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 3 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 6, drew 2, lost 3 of 11, scoring 11 and conceding 12 -- 1.82 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Crystal Palace Ladies 7-0 away; drew with Liverpool Women 1-1 away; beat West Ham United Women 3-1 at home; beat Brighton & Hove Albion Women 2-1 away; beat London City Lionesses 2-1 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 9 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Martin Peter Ho. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Aston Villa Ladies -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 3, drew 2, lost 6 of 11, scoring 14 and conceding 22 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Brighton & Hove Albion Women 1-1 away; lost to Manchester City Women 1-4 at home; drew with Chelsea Women 1-1 away; lost to London City Lionesses 1-2 away; lost to Arsenal Women 0-3 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 9 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Natalia Arroyo. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Tottenham Hotspur Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa Ladies scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa Ladies is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Tottenham Hotspur Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 46); Tottenham Hotspur Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 40); Aston Villa Ladies scores most in the 31-45+ band (10 of 31); Aston Villa Ladies concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Tottenham Hotspur Women -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 12. - **When it scores:** Of 46 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 46 (33%). - **When it concedes:** Of 40 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 40 (35%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 9, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 25 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ### Aston Villa Ladies -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 2.2 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.8 against over 13. - **When it scores:** Of 31 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 54 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 7 of its 25 read -- then won 3, drew 0, lost 4; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 25 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tottenham Hotspur Women's numbers over its games, Aston Villa Ladies's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tottenham Hotspur Women's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 4 (33%). In Aston Villa Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 4 (31%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. ### Tottenham Hotspur Women -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 25 (60%); over 1.5 in 19 (76%); over 3.5 in 8 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 15 of its own 25 (60%). At home: 6 of its 12 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 25 (28%); failed to score in 5 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tottenham Hotspur Women's own 25 matches read: Tottenham Hotspur Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (52%). Tottenham Hotspur Women itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 4 of 12. ### Aston Villa Ladies -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 25 (64%); over 1.5 in 21 (84%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 13 (54%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 17 of its own 25 (68%). Away: 10 of its 13 (77%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 25 (24%); failed to score in 5 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Aston Villa Ladies's own 25 matches read: Aston Villa Ladies or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (48%). Aston Villa Ladies itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 4 of 13. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Tottenham Hotspur Women the bigger side: 5th against 9th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 2.50 points a game, Aston Villa Ladies 0.67 -- the block form is Tottenham Hotspur Women's. +0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tottenham Hotspur Women's favour: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aston Villa Ladies 1.00 away. Tottenham Hotspur Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa Ladies scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa Ladies is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Tottenham Hotspur Women lands the first blow more often (11 of 25 to 7 of 25); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Tottenham Hotspur Women's -- two goals clear in 7 of 25, against 2 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Aston Villa Ladies's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 25; Tottenham Hotspur Women finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 46 after the 75th, and Aston Villa Ladies concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Tottenham Hotspur Women 1.46 goals expected, Aston Villa Ladies 1.09, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Tottenham Hotspur Women 2.19 (46%), the draw 3.82 (26%), Aston Villa Ladies 3.54 (28%). The market's averages: 1.60, 3.90 and 4.82. The widest gap is on Aston Villa Ladies: the market offers 4.82 against our 3.54. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.13 (47%), under 2.5 1.88 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.42. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.96 (51%), no 2.04 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tottenham Hotspur Women's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 4 (33%). In Aston Villa Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 4 (31%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/wsl/2026-09-27/tottenham-hotspur-women-v-aston-villa-ladies/halftime/ Built 2026-09-24T23:05:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.