# Chelsea Women v Manchester City Women — the Match Wizard Women's Super League, game week 10 — Saturday, 14 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Chelsea Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Chelsea Women and Manchester City Women finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 1st of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Chelsea Women takes 1.75 points a game, Manchester City Women 2.00 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 14 after 9 games, with 23 points. Last season it finished 3rd of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 2, lost 2 of 8 -- 14 points of 24. At home against them: won 3 of 4. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 2, lost 2 of 8 (1.75 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 2, lost 1 of 10 (2.30 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 2, lost 0 of 10 (2.60 a game); against sides new to the division won 3, drew 0, lost 0 of 3 (3.00 a game). ### Manchester City Women -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 14 after 9 games, with 25 points. Last season it finished 1st of 12 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 4th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 4th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 1, lost 2 of 8 -- 16 points of 24. At home against them: won 4 of 4. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 1, lost 2 of 8 (2.00 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 0, lost 1 of 10 (2.70 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 1, lost 0 of 11 (2.82 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.24 points a game is the venue form gap, in Chelsea Women's favour: Chelsea Women takes 2.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester City Women 2.13 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 2, lost 0 of 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. Last season at home: won 9, drew 0, lost 2 of 11, scoring 20 and conceding 8 -- 2.45 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Everton Women 1-1 at home; beat Charlton Athletic Ladies 6-0 away; beat Crystal Palace Ladies 3-1 away; beat Tottenham Hotspur Women 6-2 at home; beat West Ham United Women 3-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 17 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Sonia Bompastor. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Manchester City Women -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 0 of 4, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 7, drew 1, lost 3 of 11, scoring 24 and conceding 11 -- 2.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat West Ham United Women 5-0 at home; beat London City Lionesses 2-1 away; drew with Manchester United Women 1-1 away; beat Brighton & Hove Albion Women 3-2 at home; beat Arsenal Women 4-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 16 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andree Jeglertz. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Manchester City Women scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Chelsea Women scores most in the 1-15 band (17 of 72); Chelsea Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 25); Manchester City Women scores most in the 61-75 band (19 of 89); Manchester City Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 29). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.3 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 31 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.8 against over 16. - **When it scores:** Of 72 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 17 of 72 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 25 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 31 read -- then won 20, drew 6, lost 0; conceded first in 5 -- pulled back 2 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 31 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Manchester City Women -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.9 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 31 league matches; away, 2.1 for and 0.9 against over 15. - **When it scores:** Of 89 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 18. - **When it concedes:** Of 29 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 5. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 31 read -- then won 23, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 5 -- pulled back 3 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 31 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea Women's numbers over its games, Manchester City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 16 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (50%). In Manchester City Women's own 15 away matches read, 7 (47%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. ### Chelsea Women -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 31 (48%); over 1.5 in 26 (84%); over 3.5 in 11 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 5 of its 16 (31%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 15 of its own 31 (48%). At home: 6 of its 16 (38%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 31 (45%); failed to score in 2 (6%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Chelsea Women's own 31 matches read: Chelsea Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (61%). Chelsea Women itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 16. ### Manchester City Women -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 31 (77%); over 1.5 in 26 (84%); over 3.5 in 15 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 15 (73%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 31 (65%). Away: 10 of its 15 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 31 (32%); failed to score in 2 (6%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Manchester City Women's own 31 matches read: Manchester City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (61%). Manchester City Women itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 15. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Chelsea Women and Manchester City Women finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 1st of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Chelsea Women takes 1.75 points a game, Manchester City Women 2.00 -- nothing between them. +0.24 points a game is the venue form gap, in Chelsea Women's favour: Chelsea Women takes 2.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester City Women 2.13 away. Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Manchester City Women scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (26 of 31 and 25 of 31); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Chelsea Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 31. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Chelsea Women 1.31 goals expected, Manchester City Women 1.27, from two seasons of scoring rates (16 home matches and 15 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Chelsea Women 2.67 (37%), the draw 3.77 (27%), Manchester City Women 2.78 (36%). The market's averages: 2.04, 3.48 and 3.18. The widest gap is on Chelsea Women: the market is shorter (2.04) than our 2.67 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.10 (48%), under 2.5 1.91 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.48, under 2.5 2.50. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.90 (53%), no 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.40. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 16 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (50%). In Manchester City Women's own 15 away matches read, 7 (47%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/wsl/2026-11-14/chelsea-women-v-manchester-city-women/halftime/ Built 2026-11-12T02:20:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.