Bristol City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Watford: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Bristol City scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 64); Bristol City concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 69); Watford scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 57); Watford concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 71). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Bristol City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 64 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 64 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 69 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Watford -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.7 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 57 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 71 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 35 -- pulled back 7 wins and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 30 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 07:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.