Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Cardiff City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Watford: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Cardiff City's numbers over its games, Watford's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Cardiff City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (48%). In Watford's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games.
The two sides
Cardiff City -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 20 (40%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 7 (14%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Cardiff City's own 50 matches read: Cardiff City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Cardiff City itself held the lead in 16, winning 16. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Watford -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Watford's own 50 matches read: Watford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Watford itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Built 19:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.