Millwall: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Lincoln City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Millwall scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 74); Millwall concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 55); Lincoln City scores most in the 31-45+ band (23 of 88); Lincoln City concedes most in the 46-60 band (11 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Millwall -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 74 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 55 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Lincoln City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 0.9 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 88 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 23; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 21.
When it concedes
Of 52 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 52 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 34 of its 50 read -- then won 29, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 50 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 07:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.