-0.38 points a game is the venue form gap, in Lincoln City's favour: Watford takes 1.54 a game at home over the last two seasons, Lincoln City 1.92 away.
Watford: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Lincoln City: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so.
The two sides
Watford -- at home
Its record at the relevant venue
This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Last season at home: won 7, drew 6, lost 5 of 18, scoring 22 and conceding 21 -- 1.50 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Norwich City 2-3 away; lost to Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-1 away; beat Charlton Athletic 2-0 at home; lost to Cardiff City 1-5 away; lost to Burnley 0-4 at home.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 34 matches with one recorded (13, 13, 8 apiece), most recently Alessio Dionisi with 13. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Lincoln City -- away
Its record at the relevant venue
This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Last season away in the League One: won 11, drew 5, lost 3 of 19, scoring 33 and conceding 18 -- 2.00 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Birmingham City 1-3 at home; beat Burnley 4-1 at home; drew with Millwall 2-2 away; lost to West Ham United 0-6 at home; lost to Sheffield United 0-3 away.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 16 matches with one recorded (11, 5 apiece), most recently Tom William Shaw with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Built 16:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.