Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Watford: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Lincoln City: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Watford's numbers over its games, Lincoln City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Watford's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (54%). In Lincoln City's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games.
The two sides
Watford -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 12 of its 24 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 50 (16%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Watford's own 50 matches read: Watford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Watford itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24.
Lincoln City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 17 (34%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 50 (40%); failed to score in 7 (14%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Lincoln City's own 50 matches read: Lincoln City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Lincoln City itself held the lead in 20, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25.
Built 16:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.