Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Wrexham: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Middlesbrough: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Wrexham's numbers over its games, Middlesbrough's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Wrexham's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In Middlesbrough's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Wrexham -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 24 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 18 of its 24 (75%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 10 (20%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Wrexham's own 50 matches read: Wrexham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Wrexham itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24.
Middlesbrough -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 20 (40%). Away: over 2.5 in 17 of its 25 (68%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). Away: 18 of its 25 (72%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 11 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Middlesbrough's own 50 matches read: Middlesbrough or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Middlesbrough itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25.
Built 22:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.