Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 26%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Bolton Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Derby County's numbers over its games, Bolton Wanderers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Bolton Wanderers's own 24 away matches read, 6 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 26% of games.
The two sides
Derby County -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 7 (14%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 25.
Bolton Wanderers -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 33 (66%); over 3.5 in 19 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 11 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Bolton Wanderers's own 50 matches read: Bolton Wanderers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (30%). Bolton Wanderers itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 24.
Built 10:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.