Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Birmingham City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Birmingham City's numbers over its games, Swansea City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Birmingham City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 16 (64%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games.
The two sides
Birmingham City -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). At home: 16 of its 25 (64%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 10 (20%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Birmingham City's own 50 matches read: Birmingham City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Birmingham City itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25.
Swansea City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 11 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Swansea City's own 50 matches read: Swansea City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Swansea City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 16 of 25.
Built 06:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.