Championship, game week 15 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Sheffield United the bigger side: 13th against 20th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Charlton Athletic takes 0.94 points a game, Sheffield United 2.00 -- the block form is Sheffield United's. -0.28 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sheffield United's favour: Charlton Athletic takes 1.20 a game at home over the last two seasons, Sheffield United 1.48 away. Charlton Athletic scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Sheffield United scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 34%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Sheffield United lands the first blow more often (26 of 50 to 20 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Sheffield United's -- two goals clear in 18 of 50, against 4 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Charlton Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sheffield United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 50.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Charlton Athletic 0.95 goals expected, Sheffield United 1.42, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Charlton Athletic 3.96 (25%), the draw 3.72 (27%), Sheffield United 2.09 (48%). The market's averages: 3.28, 3.50 and 2.10. The widest gap is on Charlton Athletic: the market is shorter (3.28) than our 3.96 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.37 (42%), under 2.5 1.73 (58%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.89, under 2.5 1.93. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.15 (47%), no 1.87 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.68, no 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Charlton Athletic's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (20%). In Sheffield United's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 34% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.