Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 49% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Brentford: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Sunderland: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Brentford's numbers over its games, Sunderland's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Brentford's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Sunderland's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games.
The two sides
Brentford -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 40 (52%); over 1.5 in 33 (82%); over 3.5 in 14 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 20 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 40 (52%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 40 (28%); failed to score in 12 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brentford's own 40 matches read: Brentford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (58%). Brentford itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20.
Sunderland -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 40 (45%); over 1.5 in 28 (70%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 19 of its own 40 (48%). Away: 10 of its 20 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 40 (30%); failed to score in 13 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Sunderland's own 40 matches read: Sunderland or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (38%). Sunderland itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.