Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 38%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Newcastle United: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. AFC Bournemouth: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newcastle United's numbers over its games, AFC Bournemouth's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In AFC Bournemouth's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 38% of games.
The two sides
Newcastle United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 40 (62%); over 1.5 in 31 (78%); over 3.5 in 14 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 20 (80%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 40 (65%). At home: 16 of its 20 (80%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 9 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newcastle United's own 40 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (38%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20.
AFC Bournemouth -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 40 (55%); over 1.5 in 31 (78%); over 3.5 in 16 (40%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 40 (68%). Away: 14 of its 20 (70%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 40 (28%); failed to score in 7 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over AFC Bournemouth's own 40 matches read: AFC Bournemouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (32%). AFC Bournemouth itself held the lead in 7, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 20.
Built 06:37 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.