Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 60%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Arsenal: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Chelsea: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal's numbers over its games, Chelsea's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Chelsea's own 20 away matches read, 13 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 60% of games.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 40 (52%); over 1.5 in 28 (70%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 20 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 18 of its own 40 (45%). At home: 8 of its 20 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 40 (52%); failed to score in 3 (8%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal's own 40 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 17, winning 16. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20.
Chelsea -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 40 (68%); over 1.5 in 35 (88%); over 3.5 in 14 (35%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 20 (75%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 40 (65%). Away: 14 of its 20 (70%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 7 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea's own 40 matches read: Chelsea or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (60%). Chelsea itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 20.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.