Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Everton: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester United: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Everton's numbers over its games, Manchester United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Everton's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Manchester United's own 20 away matches read, 5 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games.
The two sides
Everton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 31 (78%); over 3.5 in 8 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 40 (50%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 40 (30%); failed to score in 10 (25%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Everton's own 40 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20.
Manchester United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 40 (62%); over 1.5 in 34 (85%); over 3.5 in 15 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 40 (70%). Away: 14 of its 20 (70%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 40 (20%); failed to score in 5 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester United's own 40 matches read: Manchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Manchester United itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 20.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.