Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Arsenal: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Leeds United: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal's numbers over its games, Leeds United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Leeds United's own 21 away matches read, 9 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 43 (53%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 9 (21%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 21 (62%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 19 of its own 43 (44%). At home: 9 of its 21 (43%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 22 of its own 43 (51%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal's own 43 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (44%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 18, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Leeds United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 43 (51%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (35%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 21 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 43 (58%). Away: 13 of its 21 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 13 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Leeds United's own 43 matches read: Leeds United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (42%). Leeds United itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 21.
Built 18:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.