Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Crystal Palace: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crystal Palace's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (33%). In Nottingham Forest's own 21 away matches read, 12 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Crystal Palace -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 43 (56%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 11 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 43 (53%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 43 (30%); failed to score in 14 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crystal Palace's own 43 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (37%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 21.
Nottingham Forest -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 43 (51%); over 1.5 in 33 (77%); over 3.5 in 11 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 43 (47%). Away: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 17 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 43 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (47%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 21.
Built 14:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.