Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Liverpool: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Liverpool's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Manchester City's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games.
The two sides
Liverpool -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 43 (58%); over 1.5 in 35 (81%); over 3.5 in 13 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 21 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 43 (65%). At home: 14 of its 21 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 43 (30%); failed to score in 5 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Liverpool's own 43 matches read: Liverpool or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (47%). Liverpool itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 21.
Manchester City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 43 (63%); over 1.5 in 36 (84%); over 3.5 in 10 (23%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 43 (51%). Away: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 43 (42%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City's own 43 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (51%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 19, winning 18. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21.
Built 14:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.