Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 57%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Everton: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Chelsea: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Everton's numbers over its games, Chelsea's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Everton's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (50%). In Chelsea's own 22 away matches read, 14 (64%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 57% of games.
The two sides
Everton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 44 (43%); over 1.5 in 33 (75%); over 3.5 in 10 (23%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 44 (50%). At home: 11 of its 22 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 44 (32%); failed to score in 11 (25%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Everton's own 44 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (39%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 22.
Chelsea -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 44 (70%); over 1.5 in 39 (89%); over 3.5 in 16 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 17 of its 22 (77%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 44 (66%). Away: 15 of its 22 (68%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 44 (20%); failed to score in 8 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea's own 44 matches read: Chelsea or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (59%). Chelsea itself held the lead in 15, winning 14. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 22.
Built 00:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.