Premier League, game week 7 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Hull City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.03 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hull City's favour: Fulham takes 1.64 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hull City 1.67 away. Fulham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hull City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fulham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hull City is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hull City lands the first blow more often (29 of 50 to 19 of 44); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hull City's -- two goals clear in 14 of 50, against 8 of 44; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Fulham's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 44; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Hull City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Fulham finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 53 after the 75th, and Hull City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Fulham 1.35 goals expected, Hull City 1.48, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Hull City's figures include last season in the Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Fulham 2.90 (34%), the draw 3.99 (25%), Hull City 2.47 (40%). The market's averages: 1.70, 4.00 and 4.30. The widest gap is on Hull City: the market offers 4.30 against our 2.47. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.86 (54%), under 2.5 2.16 (46%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 2.13. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.75 (57%), no 2.34 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.69, no 2.07. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Fulham's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (32%). In Hull City's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.