Leeds United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Manchester United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Leeds United is softest.
Leeds United: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester United: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Leeds United scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 57); Leeds United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 61); Manchester United scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 78); Manchester United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Leeds United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.0 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 61 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 44 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 44 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Manchester United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 78 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 78 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 59 (32%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 44 read -- then won 17, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 44 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.