-1.05 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arsenal's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 0.95 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arsenal 2.00 away.
Nottingham Forest: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest -- at home
Its record at the relevant venue
This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3, scoring 0 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 4, drew 8, lost 7 of 19, scoring 20 and conceding 23 -- 1.05 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Crystal Palace 1-3 away; lost to Coventry City 0-1 at home; beat Aston Villa 2-1 away; drew with Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 at home; drew with Liverpool 2-2 away.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 6, 5, 3 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Arsenal -- away
Its record at the relevant venue
This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 11, drew 5, lost 3 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 16 -- 2.00 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: beat Leeds United 2-1 at home; lost to Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 away; beat Sunderland 2-0 away; beat Chelsea 2-1 at home; beat Aston Villa 1-0 away.
The dugout
Every one of the 44 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mikel Arteta Amatriain. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Built 00:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.