Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Brentford: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Brentford's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Brentford's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Nottingham Forest's own 23 away matches read, 13 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games.
The two sides
Brentford -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 46 (54%); over 1.5 in 39 (85%); over 3.5 in 16 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 46 (57%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 46 (26%); failed to score in 12 (26%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brentford's own 46 matches read: Brentford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (52%). Brentford itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23.
Nottingham Forest -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 46 (50%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 23 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 46 (48%). Away: 13 of its 23 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 18 (39%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 46 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (46%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 23.
Built 06:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.