Arsenal: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Arsenal scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 85); Arsenal concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 32); Hull City scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 71); Hull City concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 0.6 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 85 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 32 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 32 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 33 of its 47 read -- then won 30, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 47 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Hull City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.