Premier League, game week 10 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Fulham and Newcastle United finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 12th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Fulham takes 1.43 points a game, Newcastle United 1.00 -- the block form is Fulham's. +0.70 points a game is the venue form gap, in Fulham's favour: Fulham takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Newcastle United 1.00 away. Fulham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fulham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Newcastle United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Newcastle United lands the first blow more often (27 of 47 to 21 of 47); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newcastle United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 47; Fulham finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 56 after the 75th, and Newcastle United concedes most in that same spell; Newcastle United finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 65 after the 75th, and Fulham concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Fulham 1.48 goals expected, Newcastle United 1.01, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Fulham 2.08 (48%), the draw 3.83 (26%), Newcastle United 3.87 (26%). The market's averages: 2.10, 3.60 and 3.20. The widest gap is on Newcastle United: the market is shorter (3.20) than our 3.87 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.20 (46%), under 2.5 1.84 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.29. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.03 (49%), no 1.97 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.38. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Fulham's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Newcastle United's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:03 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.