Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Nottingham Forest: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Nottingham Forest's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Nottingham Forest's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (35%). In Manchester City's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 47 (49%); over 1.5 in 36 (77%); over 3.5 in 12 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 23 (35%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 47 (47%). At home: 9 of its 23 (39%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 19 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 47 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (47%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23.
Manchester City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 47 (64%); over 1.5 in 39 (83%); over 3.5 in 11 (23%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 23 (57%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 47 (51%). Away: 12 of its 23 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 47 (40%); failed to score in 5 (11%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City's own 47 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (51%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 21, winning 20. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23.
Built 02:26 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.