Bradford City scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Mansfield Town scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Bradford City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Mansfield Town is softest.
Bradford City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Mansfield Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Bradford City scores most in the 46-60 band (14 of 60); Bradford City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 56); Mansfield Town scores most in the 16-30 band (15 of 70); Mansfield Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Bradford City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 0.8 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 60 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 56 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Mansfield Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 70 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13.
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 60 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.