Bradford City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Barnsley: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Bradford City scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 58); Bradford City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (11 of 53); Barnsley scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 68); Barnsley concedes most in the 61-75 band (22 of 81). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Bradford City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 0.7 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 58 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 53 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 10.
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Barnsley -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 81 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 22; 76-90+: 16.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.