Mansfield Town scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Leyton Orient scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Mansfield Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Leyton Orient is softest.
Mansfield Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Leyton Orient: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Mansfield Town scores most in the 16-30 band (15 of 68); Mansfield Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 58); Leyton Orient scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 68); Leyton Orient concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 75). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Mansfield Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Leyton Orient -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 4 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.